Editorial and research project, 18+

How promotional campaigns are actually built, and why they behave the way they do.

Pick Theory Lab takes apart the mechanics behind contests and prize promotions: the logic of the rules, how entry limits shape participation, how winners are selected, and what people do when the odds are published. We are a media project. We run nothing, host nothing and award nothing.

Notes published: 48 Mechanics catalogued: 23 Promotions operated: none
Interactive model

Entry concentration under a per-person cap

A simple model of what happens to a prize pool of entries when a minority of entrants use the full daily allowance and the rest enter once. Adjust the two assumptions and watch the share of entries move.

Figure 1. Share of all entries, by entrant group

Model, not a measurement

Archive

Research notes

Method

How we work

01

Published documents first

Our primary sources are official rules, published odds and operator statements. Where a figure comes from a reader sample instead, the note says so and gives the sample size.

02

Models are declared

Every model on this site states its assumptions and is simplified deliberately. A model shows how a mechanic behaves in principle, never what a specific promotion will do.

03

No advice, no predictions

We do not tell anyone what to enter, what to spend or what their chances are. The work is descriptive: this is how the mechanic is built and this is what follows from it.

04

Corrections run in the open

When a note is wrong, the correction goes at the top of it and into the next email, with the same weight as the original claim.

The business

How this project is funded

Fig. 1

Free to read

Everything on this site and in the weekly email is free. There is no account, no paywall, and no charge for anything we link to.

Fig. 2

Paid placements

Operators pay to appear in the weekly email and in placement slots on the site. Anything paid for is labelled as a placement so you can tell it apart from what we wrote.

Fig. 3

Paid for the slot, not the words

Our explainers and summaries are written by us. Payment buys a place in the email, never a different conclusion.

Got a question?

Write to us. We reply within 48 hours.

newsletter@picktheorylab.com
Privacy

Privacy Policy

Last updated 1 week ago

This page explains what information Pick Theory Lab collects, what we do with it, and how to make us stop. It covers the website at picktheorylab.com and the emails we send.

Who we are

Pick Theory Lab is an independent editorial and research project about promotional campaigns, contests and random selection mechanics. We are a media project, not an operator: we run no promotions, award nothing, and host no games. Contact us at newsletter@picktheorylab.com.

Email addresses: how we get yours

We only hold an email address if you gave it to us. That happens in one of two ways:

We record the date, time and page where a sign-up was made, and the moment it was confirmed, so we can show you where a subscription came from if you ever ask.

What we send

Subscribers receive a weekly email with a new research note, a mechanic taken apart, and promotions that are currently open to enter. Those emails carry commercial content, including promotions run by third parties. We never send a message claiming you have won something, and we never ask for a payment, a card number, an account password or a verification code by email.

How to stop receiving email

Every email carries an unsubscribe link at the bottom. One click is enough and there is no confirmation step. You can also write to newsletter@picktheorylab.com with the word "unsubscribe" and we will remove you by hand.

Unsubscribes are processed immediately and always within 72 hours. After that the address stays on a suppression list, which exists only so that you are never added again by mistake. You can ask us to delete that record too.

Who else sees your address

Your address is stored with the email platform we use to send messages, which processes it on our behalf and under contract. Beyond that processor, we do not sell your address, we do not rent it, and we do not pass it to advertisers for their own use.

What else the site collects

The entry-concentration model on the front page runs entirely in your browser. Nothing you adjust is recorded or sent anywhere.

Cookies

The site uses functional cookies needed for pages to display correctly. Blocking cookies in your browser costs you no content on this site.

Your rights

You can ask what data we hold about you, ask for it to be corrected, ask for a copy, or ask for it to be deleted. Write to newsletter@picktheorylab.com and we will respond within 30 days. You do not have to give a reason.

Age

This site and our emails are intended for adults aged 18 or over. We do not knowingly collect information from children. If you believe a child has subscribed, tell us and we will remove the address immediately.

Our figures

Where we publish a number it is either arithmetic you can reproduce from the stated assumptions, or a figure published by an operator, and we always say which. Models are simplified on purpose and are never a description of any specific promotion.

Data readers send us

If you send us entry logs or screenshots, we may use them in aggregate. Usernames, addresses and account details are removed before anything is published.

Accuracy of what we publish

We describe how promotions commonly work. Operators change terms, promotions close and regional rules differ. Always read the official rules of the promotion itself, which is the only version that binds anyone. Nothing here is legal or financial advice, and nothing here is a prediction of any outcome.

Trademarks

Brand names and trademarks belong to their owners and appear here for identification and commentary only.

Changes to this page

If this policy changes, the new version appears here with a fresh timestamp at the top. Continued use of the site after a change means you accept the revised version.

Contact

Anything at all, including data requests and unsubscribes: newsletter@picktheorylab.com

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